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Summer Rally Signals Market Shift: June 30, 2025 Insights
Stocks Reach New Highs as Volatility Drops
Markets rallied last week, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ closing at record levels. Year-to-date, both indexes are up about 5 percent. This momentum was supported by a pullback in oil prices and a shift in interest rate expectations.
Crude oil prices fell 11 percent to roughly $65 per barrel. This sharp decline followed easing tensions in global regions that had previously driven energy volatility. Lower oil prices are often viewed as supportive of consumer spending and economic stability.
Bond Yields Fall as Rate Expectations Shift
U.S. Treasury yields continued their three-week descent. The 10-year yield ended the week at 4.28 percent, down from its late-May peak of 4.60 percent. These moves suggest bond markets anticipate interest rate cuts by year-end, further contributing to positive equity sentiment.
Economic Data Remains Mixed
While markets celebrated market-friendly developments, U.S. economic data revealed underlying challenges. First quarter GDP was revised lower, contracting at a 0.5 percent annual rate. Meanwhile, core inflation, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, ticked up to 2.7 percent.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) settled at 16.3, well below its highs from earlier this year. This reading reflects a relatively calm market environment heading into July.
What This Means for Investors
As Alphastar’s CIO Tony Parish notes:
Although the macro picture remains mixed, investor sentiment is trending upward. Monitoring inflation, rates, and global trade will be key in the weeks ahead.
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Disclosure:
This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All data is as of May 27, 2025. Please consult with a qualified financial professional for personalized advice.