Equities End 2025 with Gains as Inflation Trends Hold: Week of December 29, 2025

2025-12-29 Market Monitor

Year-End Rally Continues with Broad Sector Strength

Markets ended the final week of the year with modest gains. The S&P 500 rose 0.3%, the NASDAQ added 0.1%, and the Dow climbed 0.8%. For the full year, the S&P 500 gained 24.2%, while the NASDAQ surged 43.4%, marking a standout year for equities.

Investor sentiment remained constructive, supported by easing inflation, stable economic data, and expectations for potential rate cuts in 2026.

Inflation and Policy Outlook Remain Steady

Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) — the Fed’s preferred inflation metric — rose 0.1% in November, bringing the annual rate down to 3.2%, the lowest reading since March 2021. Markets continued to align with the Fed’s projection for three rate cuts in 2026, though policymakers reiterated that decisions will be driven by ongoing economic data.

The 10-year Treasury yield held near 3.9%, reflecting a cautious but stable bond market environment.

Sector Performance Reflects Market Rotation

Technology, real estate, and utilities were among the top-performing sectors during the week, extending a broader year-end rally in rate-sensitive areas. Energy stocks lagged, driven by softer oil prices and weaker demand signals heading into 2026.

Developed international markets also posted modest gains, while emerging markets were mixed amid currency and geopolitical pressures.

Alphastar CIO Tony Parish noted:

“2025 rewarded investors who remained focused on the long-term despite short-term volatility,”

Here are three timely insights for investors:

  1. Inflation Progress Supports Fed’s Outlook
    Continued easing in core inflation helps reinforce the potential for rate adjustments in 2026, though further data will shape the timing.

  2. Sector Rotation Shows Market Breadth
    Strength across technology and defensives suggests a more balanced recovery. Investors may benefit from diversified sector exposure entering the new year.

  3. Bond Market Stability Adds Predictability
    Stable yields provide a more favorable backdrop for fixed income planning and may help reduce volatility across rate-sensitive asset classes.

Final Thoughts

The year wrapped up with positive momentum as investors looked ahead to 2026. With inflation easing and sectors broadening their gains, the backdrop remains constructive, even as policymakers signal caution.

Tony Parish summed it up clearly:

“This year demonstrated the value of patience and discipline — qualities that often matter most in uncertain times.”

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Disclosure:

This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All data is as of December 29, 2025. Please consult with a qualified financial professional for personalized advice.

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